Viet Nam is making significant efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition towards renewable energy sources. The Department of Climate Change (DCC) has recently announced a lowered grid emission factor for Viet Nam in 2023, showing progress in decarbonising the electricity supply.
Changes in the grid emission factor are a representation of the energy transition. Thus, this article analyses the grid emission factor from 2014 to 2023 and the factors driving this transition. The calculation process for Viet Nam’s grid emission factor follows the internationally recognised methodology outlined in the “Tool for the Calculation of Emission Factors for the Electricity System,” ensuring consistency and comparability with global emission factor calculations.
Table 1: Viet Nam’s grid emission factor
| Year | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
| EF (tCO2e/MWh) | 0.6612 | 0.8154 | 0.9185 | 0.8649 | 0.9130 |
| Year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| EF (tCO2e/MWh) | 0.8458 | 0.8041 | 0.7221 | 0.6766 | 0.6592 |
Source: Summarised from the DCC’s announcements
Historically, Viet Nam’s grid emission factor remained relatively low before 2014 due to a significant reliance on hydroelectric power. However, the subsequent increase in coal and gas-fired power plants between 2015 and 2020 to meet power demand led to a rise in the emission factor (see Table 1). The newly released calculations reveal that Viet Nam’s grid emission factor for 2023 is 0.6592 tCO2/MWh, a substantial decrease from the 2018 level of 0.9130 tCO2/MWh, and for the first time since lower than the 2014 value of 0.6612 tCO2/MWh, which is also the basis for Viet Nam’s NDC. This reduction signifies a positive trend towards lower emissions associated with electricity generation.
Viet Nam has made remarkable progress in developing renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind power. In 2018, it had just 105 MW of installed solar power capacity, but by the end of 2020, that number had ballooned to 16,000 MW. In recent years, the hydropower capacity rejuvenated after a dip between 2016 and 2020 due to significant increase in power demand and the government’s direction to increase the proportion of renewable resources in the energy mix.
The strong growth of clean energy sectors has played a crucial role in decreasing the grid emission factor: As of 2023, Viet Nam’s total power source capacity reached approximately 80,555MW. Notably, the total capacity of wind and solar power amounted to 21,664MW, accounting for 27% of the overall capacity. Coal-fired thermal power accounted for 26,757MW, making up 33.2% of the capacity. Hydropower, including small hydropower, accounted for 22,872MW, representing 28.4% of the capacity.
But the country’s rapid economic growth and Net-zero commitment by 2025 also result in a surge in electricity demand. The Viet Nam’s Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8) forecasts an average GDP growth rate of roughly 7% per year from 2021 to 2030, suggesting an annual increase of 8% in power demand in the near term. Balancing this rising demand while minimising emissions poses a significant challenge. To meet the challenges posed by increasing electricity demand and achieve its net-zero commitment, PDP8 emphasises the need for a diverse range of power resources. The plan acknowledges that a mix of renewable energy sources, in which renewable energy comprising 50% of Vietnam’s energy mix by 2050, while at the same time phasing out all coal-fired plants. It also considers, energy efficiency measures, extension of grid infrastructure, and potentially innovative technologies are essential for reducing emissions sustainably.
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