The revision of the National Power Development Plan 8 meets JETP goals for renewables and surpasses NDC emission commitments. It considers increased energy demand due to economic growth but does not reduce coal capacity in line with JETP.
The amended National Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8) was published in April, two years after the initial one in May 2023. It is based on ambitious annual GDP growth projections, 10% between 2026 and 2030, and thereafter 7.5% until 2050. Simultaneously, the power demand forecast projects rapidly rising electricity consumption, with 500–558 TWh by 2030 and 1,375 TWh by 2050, up from 276 TWh in 2022. For comparison, Thailand expects to use 268 TWh in 2030, up from 220 TWh in 2023. Countries with weaker GDP growth and a strong focus on energy efficiency, like Germany, a country of similar size and intense manufacturing, have even reduced their power demand in recent years. Germany used 624 TWh at its peak in 2007 and 521 TWh in 2023.
The projected 183-236 GWh installed generation capacity for 2030 rose 34.8% on average compared to the original PDP8 (155 GWh). This increase may not be solely attributed to higher electricity demand but also reflects the need to offset the volatility of renewable energy sources with higher installed capacity. In addition, Viet Nam wants to export 5-10 GWh from the 2030s.
Overall, the 2025-PDP8 significantly elevates targets for renewable energy (RE) sources, suggesting that the share of installed generation capacity of RE exceeds 70% by 2030, compared to 53.8% in the initial version of PDP8. The targeted RE share in the power mix 2030 has increased to 28-36% (excluding hydropower). Including hydropower, the RE share would exceed the 47% JETP target.
Particularly, goals for solar power capacity (50% increase) and onshore and nearshore wind (75%) have been increased. In 2030, Viet Nam intends that half of the office buildings and residences use self-generated rooftop solar power.
Investments in the electricity grid and energy storage have also been significantly expanded, including Battery Energy Storage Solutions (16,3 GW of the 22,3 GW in 2035). The increased goals for energy storage will also need to offset some of the 2023-PDP8 projected domestic natural gas capacity, which has been reduced to 10.86–14.93 GW, compared to the fixed target of 14.93 GW. In addition, the revised PDP8 foresees developing up to 6.4 GW of nuclear power capacity by 2035, which was not foreseen in the previous PDP8 iteration.
Both iterations of PDP8 aim to restrict coal-fired power stations to existing and under-construction projects. However, the 2025-PDP8 caps the 2030 capacity at around 31 GW with an additional 7.2 GW of planned coal reserve, exceeding the JETP agreement (Article 24, c), which sets a cap of 30.2 GW for coal-fired power capacity. Nevertheless, the 2025 plan continues to mandate the conversion or shutdown by 2050. Interestingly, it suggests only 25,798 MW coal capacity will need to be converted to sustainable fuels and carbon capture technologies, while all other power plants will be shut down. The 2023 plan had noted a wider range (25.6–32.4 GW) for converted capacity.
For the new infrastructure developments, PDP8 makes provisions to protect biodiversity and carbon sinks, i.e. forests, natural reserves, and natural heritage, referring to limiting harmful construction. In addition, PDP8 specifically refers to adaptation measures for extreme weather events to ensure safe and stable operation and minimise risks and losses.
The 2025-PDP8 targets 197–199 Megatons of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2030 for the energy industry, a significant reduction from the 204–254 MtCO2e foreseen in the previous iteration. Both these PDP8 figures are higher than the 75 MtCO2e that Viet Nam’s energy industry emitted in 2014, but substantially lower than the 420 MtCO2e expected in the NDC 2022 unconditional target (assuming only domestic measures). The ~197 MtCO2e target in the new PDP8 represents considerable 110 MtCO2e progress compared to the NDC’s conditional goal (287 MtCO2e). Overall, PDP8 suggests a 56% reduction (255 MtCO2e) compared to the NDC’s Business As Usual (BAU) scenario (452 MtCO2e).
The revision explicitly refers to the JETP goal “to achieve a peak emissions level of no more than 170 MtCO2e by 2030, with the condition that the JETP-based commitments are fully implemented by international partners.”
Between 2030 and 2050, the new PDP8 projects energy industry emissions to fall sharply to 27 MtCO2e.
Viet Nam’s revised PDP8 marks a significant step forward for climate action, despite further calls for international support for reaching the JETP coal goals. PDP8 substantially surpasses the emission reduction commitments made in the 2022 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and the targets set in the 2023-PDP8. In terms of energy demand, it considers Viet Nam’s ambitious economic growth targets and accommodates for rising energy demands from transport electrification and increased cooling needs.
Looking ahead, enhancing energy efficiency might present an opportunity to reduce medium-term energy demand, considering measures in energy-intensive sectors like manufacturing, steel, and buildings. Lower electricity consumption achieved through efficiency could enable the earlier retirement of polluting power plants.
