6. Expected climate change impacts in Quang Binh
This profile looks at likely future climate changes and their potential impact on Quang Binh at the province-wide level. It starts out by firstly explaining the rationale for focusing on a certain set of parameters as measuring entities of climate change, when looking at it from a vulnerability assessment- and ecosystem-based adaptation perspective, and then presents possible scenarios for Quang Binh. The chapter discusses the likely impacts and implications of those changes, with a main focus on the sectors of agriculture, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture, as well as on the natural ecosystems that are providers of important ecosystem services. More superficial treatment is generally given to climate change impacts on urban and rural settlements and infrastructure.
Without significant, concerted and continuous investments and efforts to address the key issues above, overall climate change is likely to slow down economic growth and to negatively affect quality of life in Quang Binh. Natural resources will be more degraded, food production will be reduced, and the impacts of natural disasters will be magnified. The coastal and rural poor (including ethnic minorities in upland areas) with livelihoods most dependent on natural resources will be the most vulnerable to these changes. In the worst case scenario, recent gains in poverty alleviation may be reversed. Consequently, labour migration, which is already significant, may continue to increase, and social problems may become more prevalent. These issues must be given serious attention before it is too late.